They provide a caveat that if a slightly rosier analysis is performed, battery pack-level costs could be $89/kWh by 2025 and $56/kWh by 2030.Īccording to the latest forecast from Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF), in Dec 2020 the average price of battery capacity was $137/kWh, with an expectation of average price close to $100/kWh by 2023, seven years sooner than Bloomberg NEF models suggested in 2016. The ICCT report does note that battery cost forecasting has consistently underpredicted actual battery cost reduction. This is less generous than the Wharton analysis, suggesting by 2025 a 100 kWh battery replacement out of warranty may cost up to $13,500. How does this compare to other aggregators of battery costs?Īccording to an April 2019 report by the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT), the projected cost by 2025 should be $120/kWh to $135/kWh. High demand for old lithium ion batteries will keep prices for battery replacements stable for at least another year. As of March 2023, the price is coming back down, though, and has fallen nearly 20% since the beginning of the year.
However, it's worth noting that the overall downward market trend in the price of lithium faltered in 2021 - 2022 and the price of battery components actually began to rise a bit. If the trend in battery price reduction stays constant, then by 2025 the price in 2019$ should be ~$56/kWh, or $5,600 to replace a 100 kWh battery. With that estimate, in 2019, the cost of an out-of-warranty 100 kWh battery, as is common in Tesla long range vehicles, would be at least $16,100 before labor, taxes, etc. The authors estimated in 2019 that the average cost of battery packs was $161/kWh. They found a 16% decline in battery pack cost between 20. in 2019, the Mack Institute for Innovation Management at the Wharton School for Business aggregated data found across academia, news, search engines, experts within the industry, and public statements by manufacturers. Note that the Chevrolet Bolt and Hyundai Kona EV had much higher rates of battery replacements due to widespread manufacturer's recalls.Īs battery prices continue to decline, the price you would pay today is different than the price you would pay next year or in 5 years. The chart below shows the likelihood of needing a battery replacement, based on our data. In our community of 15,000 EV drivers, the rate of battery failure is only 1.5%. If a battery is within its manufacturer warranty, typically 8 years and 100,000 miles, then you should get a replacement battery at no extra cost.īattery replacements are still rare so up-to-date data on costs can be difficult to find. How Much Does an EV Battery Cost to Replace?ĮV battery replacements range from $5,000 to $20,000 based on the pack, size and manufacturer. Hopefully, the recent decline in lithium prices reverses this trend soon. This leaves used EV owners competing with each other - and battery storage companies - for salvage or junk yard batteries, and driving the price up.
Plus, there is a new wave of second-life battery storage companies also trying to buy second hand batteries. At the same time, batteries that are in cars are not degrading as fast as expected. It seems counterintuitive, but as more people go electric, there is more demand to replace older batteries. One interesting thing is that since we originally wrote this article in 2021, the price of second hand EV batteries is actually increasing. I go through the details and cite examples for each EV model, but here is a quick overview of the vehicles that I cover in this article. We wrote an entire article on battery degradation. Other types of battery performance loss are tied to use and exposure.
We know that batteries degrade as a result of a phenomenon called “calendar aging.” Like human aging, calendar aging is a baseline of decline over time. Then what will it cost to replace that battery? When it comes to electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids, many shoppers wonder how long it will be until they have to replace their battery.
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